Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Rose Bowl presented by Citi, January 1

USC
vs
Illinois
4:30 p.m. Pasadena, Calif. ABC


Illinois, time to step-up. Sure, the Illini did go into the Horseshoe and beat Ohio State, but now it is time to see if they can do it again. USC has speed on defense that Illinois hasn't seen before. USC has seen a better version of the spread attack when Dennis Dixon and Oregon beat the Trojans 21-14 earlier in the season. Now it is time for Illinois to show why they deserve to be in the Rose Bowl over UGA, or why they are in the BCS instead of the team that beat them in Missouri. Arizona State laying an egg earlier in the bowl season eliminates them from contention.

USC was pegged by everyone as the preseason number 1 and easily the front runner for New Orleans and the National Title Game. A slew of injuries coupled with perhaps the greatest upset in the history of college football cost USC the game against Stanford and probably any chance at the national title. They got by Arizona before crushing Notre Dame and apparently getting back on track. The aforementioned loss to Oregon ended the outside national title hopes. USC did win their final four games to win their 6th straight Pac10 title and get back to the BCS.

USC did have some good wins this year, but nothing worth getting too excited about. They won the games against weaker opponents, lost to the best team in the Pac 10 (Oregon before Dixon went down), and lost the biggest shocker of all time. Pete Carroll is fabulous in bowl games (4-1) but he doesn't have the superstars on this team he is used to. There is no Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Dwayne Jarrett, etc. Don't feel too bad for Carroll, the cupboard isn't bare. This is still the same USC team that has dominated opponents for years. Unfortunately that might be the best thing going for Illinois. USC has been here before. Getting to the Rose Bowl is a huge accomplishment for any team not named USC. Players go to USC to play for national championships, and this will be the second year that players thought national title going into the season and ended in the Rose Bowl prepping for next year.

Illinois on the other hand, has only won 10 games against D1 teams in the past 5 years coming into this season. Compare that to the 59 USC won, and you can see how USC is old hat at this while it is very new and very exciting to the Illini. If Illinois can get over the "happy to be here" jinx and come out firing, they do have a chance against USC.

The USC defense finished the year 2nd overall in defense. If the Trojans play this game like it is the national title, this one could get ugly fast. The front seven for the Trojans is easily in the top 3 in the nation, if not the very best. Senior DT Sedrick Ellis is a force, even if he didn't win the award of Glenn Dorsey. He will make it very hard for Illinois to do much running in the middle. Behind him is the best group of linebackers this side of Penn State/Ohio State. Cushing, Maualuga, and Rivers are all next level talents biding time in southern California before making the mega bucks maybe as early as next season. If this defense plays up to its potential this one could be bad.

Luckily for the Illini, USC has only played a handful of quarters like that all season. If Illinois can come out and move the ball on the ground with RB Rashard Mendenhall it will really open up some lanes for Juice Williams. Williams won't trick anyone into thinking he's a pocket passer, but if he can get even some kind of rythm going through the air, the spread rushing attack can take off against the faster USC defense. USC had trouble with the spread of Washington and Oregon, and while Illinois is better than Washington, Juice Williams is no Dennis Dixon. This game is huge for Illinois as far as getting to the show and getting ready for a huge 2008, but they just aren't ready for the speed of USC.

Line: USC -13.5, Total 49.5

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