Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Team of the 2000s

I will get into this debate further in the coming days, but for now here are the statistics of all 7 teams that have won a national championship since 2000. Technically the decade doesn't start until 2001, but for argument's sake we're going to include the 2000 season. Please vote in our poll that will be open until the start of the 2008 season

Oklahoma
90-16 overall record (.849 winning percentage)
5 Big 12 titles
2-4 BCS record
4-4 overall bowl record
1 BCS national title (2000)

Miami
76-23 overall record (.768 winning percentage)
4 Big East titles
3-1 BCS record
5-2 overall bowl record
1 BCS national title (2001)

Ohio State
81-20 overall record (.802 winning percentage)
4 Big 10 titles
3-2 BCS record
4-4 overall bowl record
1 BCS national title (2002)

LSU
82-22 overall record (.788 winning percentage)
3 SEC titles
4-0 BCS
6-2 overall bowl record
2 BCS national titles (2003, 2007)

USC
81-21 overall record (0.794 winning percentage)
6 Pac 10 titles
5-1 BCS record
5-2 overall bowl record
1 BCS national title (2004)

Texas
85-17 overall record (.833 winning percentage)
1 Big 12 title
2-0 BCS record
6-2 overall bowl record
1 BCS national title (2005)

Florida
74-27 overall record (.733)
2 SEC titles
2-1 BCS record
3-5 overall bowl record
1 BCS national title (2006)

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Final Conference RPI

01. SEC - 0.569683
02. Big East - 0.547906
03. Big 12 - 0.546513
04. Pac 10 - 0.543874
05. Big 10 - 0.536484
06. ACC - 0.520604
07. MWC - 0.495431
08. Independents - 0.44792
09. CUSA - 0.439678
10. WAC - 0.436244
11. Sun Belt - 0.431811
12. MAC - 0.426213

Not a lot of surprise as the SEC takes the top spot since LSU and Georgia are at the top of the rankings. The SEC had 6 teams in the top 25 of the final RPI, with 10 in the top 40. Surprisingly the Big East is ranked 2nd, helped largely by the small number of teams and West Virginia, Rutgers, and South Florida's big seasons. Not surprisingly the ACC is the lowest rated BCS conference after a HORRIBLE bowl season. The Sun Belt not being in last place has to be a victory for the conference that has long been the door mat of the rest of the nation. This should change some thoughts of those that think Big10 teams play tougher OOC schedules than SEC teams since they schedule MAC teams instead of Sun Belt teams.

Final RPI* (SOS in parenthesis; bonus NOT included)

01. Georgia (4)
02. LSU (16)
03. Missouri (20)
04. Virginia Tech (8)
05. West Virginia (28)
06. Ohio State (33)
07. Oklahoma (19)
08. Michigan (24)
09. Florida (6)
10. Kansas (65)
11. Tennessee (15)
12. Oregon (9)
13. Boston College (38)
14. South Florida (11)
15. Illinois (12)
16. USC (64)
17. Auburn (18)
18. Arizona State (44)
19. BYU (60)
20. Oregon State (22)
21. Texas (51)
22. Cincinnati (46)
23. Kentucky (10)
24. Clemson (36)
25. Penn State (48)
26. Texas A&M (2)
27. Oklahoma State (3)
28. Connecticut (49)
29. Mississippi State (27)
30. Wisconsin (52)
31. Hawaii (106)
32. Arkansas (39)
33. Wake Forest (67)
34. Alabama (21)
35. Utah (68)
36. South Carolina (7)
37. Virginia (71)
38. UCLA (17)
39. Michigan State (34)
40. UCF (76)
41. Rutgers (47)
42. Texas Tech (69)
43. Purdue (50)
44. California (43)
45. Nebraska (13)
46. Louisville (25)
47. Air Force (77)
48. Washington (1)
49. Florida State (54)
50. Tulsa (84)
51. Arizona (14)
52. East Carolina (75)
53. Boise State (103)
54. Maryland (32)
55. Troy (82)
56. Colorado (45)
57. Pittsburgh (23)
58. Georgia Tech (58)
59. TCU (79)
60. Fresno State (88)
61. New Mexico (90)
62. Indiana (62)
63. Vanderbilt (30)
64. North Carolina State (31)
65. Kansas State (37)
66. Florida Atlantic (89)
67. Central Michigan (97)
68. Navy (108)
69. Washington State (63)
70. Ole Miss (5)
71. Northwestern (73)
72. Wyoming (70)
73. Stanford (53)
74. Iowa State (35)
75. Notre Dame (29)
76. Ball State (94)
77. Iowa (83)
78. San Diego State (42)
79. Bowling Green (117)
80. Miami Fl. (74)
81. ULM (86)
82. Houston (111)
83. North Carolina (57)
84. Southern Miss (104)
85. Marshall (59)
86. Akron (85)
87. Baylor (41)
88. Syracuse (40)
89. Western Michigan (80)
90. Minnesota (26)
91. Toledo (87)
92. Middle Tenn State (102)
93. Army (56)
94. Miami,OH (114)
95. Arkansas State (105)
96. Louisiana Tech (92)
97. Nevada (109)
98. Colorado State (61)
99. Memphis (120)
100. Ohio (118)
101. San Jose State (100)
102. Buffalo (116)
103. UNLV (66)
104. Duke (55)
105. ULL (91)
106. UTEP (93)
107. Eastern Michigan (95)
108. Temple (113)
109. Western Kentucky (78)
110. Tulane (110)
111. UAB (72)
112. Rice (112)
113. New Mexico State (99)
114. Utah State (96)
115. Kent State (101)
116. Florida International (81)
117. North Texas (115)
118. SMU (98)
119. Northern Illinois (119)
120. Idaho (107)

Monday, January 7, 2008

Allstate BCS National Championship

#1 Ohio State
vs
#2 LSU

8 p.m. New Orleans, La. FOX













Line: LSU -3.5, Total 47.5

GMAC Bowl, January 6

Bowling Green
vs
Tulsa
8 p.m. Mobile, Ala. ESPN


Look for lots of passing, lots of yards gained, and very very little defense. Tulsa was an unknown early in the season, but broke out to a 9 win season and even put a scare into Oklahoma for about a half early in the season. While they didn't win CUSA, just getting to the championship game is a big step for this program after losing their coach last season to Louisville. Head Coach Todd Graham has done well in his rookie season, and a win Sunday will help fans forget the thrashing they received from UCF back on December 1. With OC Gus Malzahn and his no-huddle, fast-paced offense now in Tulsa instead of Arkansas, the Hurricanes have been lighting the scoreboard up. They lead the nation in total offense, 9th in scoring offense, and 3rd in passing offense. Unfortunately they are 111th in total defense.

Defensively, Bowling Green is a good bit better. The Falcons are 29th in the nation in Pass Defense while being 35th in the nation in scoring offense. Bowling Green was the surprise team in the MAC this season after having a fantastic November. Winning their final four after a loss at Ohio got the Falcons to bowl eligibility and a trip to Mobile. Head man Gregg Brandon really has his team looking good after only going 10-13 over the previous two seasons. A win against high flying Tulsa would really help this team make some noise next year in MAC play. They also will be looking to throw the ball all over the yard and should be able to do so against a weak Tulsa pass defense.

Bowling Green is led by QB Tyler Sheehan. The sophomore in his first season as a starter threw for 23 TDs and 3,000+ yards. Over the last 6 games of the season he threw 12 TDs with only 2 INTs. That kind of efficiency will destroy the Hurricanes if he can keep it up. They will also look to get the ball to playmaker Anthony Turner any way possible. He can run the ball effectively while also remaining a threat to throw a surprise pass at any time. He's scored a touchdown in each of the final 6 games.

Tulsa will use QB Paul Smith to throw the ball 50+ times and put up crazy numbers. The senior in his first year in Malzahn's offense threw for 42 touchdowns on his way to scoring 54 total touchdowns on the year (tops in the nation). Tulsa's 56-7 shocking win over CUSA champ Houston was easily their best game of the regular season. If Smith can throw on Bowling Green like he was able to do on Houston, look for a similar result.

Both teams will put up yards and points in bunches, but Tulsa and their fast-paced, no-huddle offense will just be too much for Bowling Green to handle. Tulsa's weak defense will allow BG to stick around for a half, but the Hurricanes will be able to pull away late.

Line: Tulsa -5.5, Total 77.5

Saturday, January 5, 2008

International Bowl, January 5

Ball State
vs
Rutgers
12 p.m. Toronto, Canada ESPN2


We take a break from the BCS to step outside the United States for the International Bowl. Rutgers is an overwhelming favorite as a preseason Big East favorite goes to take on MAC middle of the road Ball State.

After the excitement of the Orange Bowl, look for this one to mimic the Rose and Sugar Bowls as the favorite is sure to dominate. Look for Rutgers to run wild on the Cardinals. Rutgers will use a steady diet of rice, Ray Rice, to dominate the time of possession and total yards. While many Rutgers fans were expecting more than 7 wins and a bowl invitation to Toronto, this is still a huge step-up from where the Scarlet Knights were just a few short seasons ago. If Ray Rice sticks around for his senior season, 2008 could be huge. Louisville is down, USF will be a tough opponent, and WVU might not be the same juggernaut they have been (even though Rutgers has shown they can beat Pat White and Steve Slaton). A win in Toronto coupled with Rice returning really will springboard this team to a top 25 preseason ranking.

On the other side of the field, the Cardinals are in a bowl for the first time since 1996. This is also the first time the team has finished with a winning record in that same time span. Ball State looked good, even in losing, when playing Illinois and Nebraska on the road. They almost pulled off the upset of the Huskers back in September when people were still buying into the Huskers being an elite team.

Rutgers will be able to eat up huge chunks of yards onthe ground, but they'll also look for QB Mike Teel to make some plays throwing the ball. He won't have to do much, but if he can keep from making mistakes (which has been a problem for him during the season) Rutgers will win in a walk. Ball State will have the advantage in the passing game with studs in WR Dante Love and TE Dauris Hill, who have combined for 20 touchdowns on 143 catches.

I would hope for Ball State to keep this one close but it just won't happen. Ray Rice is going to run wild and get lots of attention from NFL Scouts. Look for Rutgers to get close to covering the total by themselves as they win big.

Line: Rutgers -11.0, Total 63

Thursday, January 3, 2008

FedEx Orange Bowl, January 3

Virginia Tech
vs
Kansas
8 p.m. Miami, Fla. FOX


Kansas got here much the same way as Hawaii used. Play as weak a non-conference schedule as you can get away with, get away with your conference being down, and get lucky by not playing Oklahoma, Texas, or Texas Tech from the Big12 South. The Jayhawks are hoping that their play in the Orange Bowl doesn't mimic Hawaii's performance in the Sugar.

Virginia Tech did their best to play for their fallen classmates during the season. The season basically played out exactly how everyone imagined in the off-season. An early loss on the road to LSU (though few imagined it would be the blowout it turned into) and an ACC title. The loss to Boston College probably ended up costing the Hokies a chance at the national title, but few ever forgot 48-7. The Hokie offense is much, much better than the one that started the season slowly against East Carolina and even slower against LSU. Now with two quarterbacks in Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor, the Virginia Tech offense can go conservative or dual threat depending on the situation. Also there to move the ball is bruising tailback Brandon Ore. Ore was the only bright spot on this offense for a stretch to start the season. While the Tech offense has gotten better, the defense has been consistent from the start (again other than against LSU).

With blowouts in the Rose and Sugar, and West Virginia running away with a three touchdown win in the Fiesta, hopefully the Orange can keep things entertaining. Kansas star QB Todd Reesing was considered a Heisman candidate for a short while, and should be looking to use the Orange Bowl as a coming out party for 2008. It will be up to stud LBs Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi to slow down the Jayhawk attack. Kansas will counter with their own superstar on defense in junior CB Aqib Talib.

If Kansas can give Reesing time to throw the ball it will give them a chance. He isn't the most mobile quarterback and won't do a great job eluding the Virginia Tech pass rush. KU won't get many sacks, but they are tough against the run. Making Glennon beat you with his arm is the best chance for the Jayhawks. Virginia Tech will try and win this game the same way they try and win every game...with defense and special teams, even if they are highly overrated in both. Beamer Ball means turnovers, and that's the best way to beat Kansas. This might be the best game of the BCS season, but Virginia Tech just has too many horses for Kansas.

Line: Virginia Tech -3.0, Total 51.0

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, January 2

West Virginia
vs
Oklahoma
8 p.m. Phoenix, Ariz. FOX


Hopefully this game won't be a 4 touchdown blowout going into the fourth quarter like the other two BCS games have been so far. USC crushed Illinois in the Rose followed by UGA running Colt Brennan and Hawaii out of the Superdome in the Sugar. Now the BCS has two more chances before LSU meets Ohio State in the BCS National Championship Game on January 7. If any game is going to be a good one, this is the one. The Orange Bowl could be like the other BCS games and get ugly fast if Virginia Tech comes out firing, but that's for tomorrow.

Both Oklahoma and West Virginia have something to prove with this game. Oklahoma is going to its 6th BCS game under Stoops, but they've lost their last three (BCS title games to LSU and USC in 2003 and 2004 respectively, and last year's Fiesta Bowl to Boise State). Now Oklahoma wants to avenge the embarrassment of their loss to Boise State, especially after the way Georgia dominated Hawaii in New Orleans. Oklahoma had dreams of the National Championship game again this year after dominating Missouri in the Big 12 title game, but the voters instead pegged Oklahoma 4th, sending the Sooners to the Fiesta Bowl again. Now they'll try and get a huge boost to head into 2008 as a sure thing top 5 team with definite national title hopes again. Led by sophomore QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma can sling it around the field or run with backup RB Allen Patrick who ripped through Missouri. Stud freshman DeMarco Murray will miss the Fiesta Bowl.

West Virginia was one win away from playing in the national title game before having a shocking collapse to a bad Pittsburgh team. Sure it was a rivalry game, but there was no reason for the Mountaineer offense to be that inept. Now head coach Rich Rodriguez is off to Michigan to lead the Wolverines. With him goes offensive coordinator Calvin Magee. Now what are the Mountaineers to do? Like their entire season, the WVU offense will go the way QB Pat White goes. When he injured his thumb against Pitt he became less effective, as did the entire offense. West Virgina will need him and RB Steve Slaton to get the ball moving against the incredibly talented and ferocious Sooner defense. The Mountaineers will also have to get the ball to freshman speedster Noel Devine and find ways to get him into space. The Sooner defense is fast, but no one on the field is as fast as Devine.

For Oklahoma to win they will have to bottle up Devine, Slaton, and WR Darius Reynaud. White will get his yards, but if the Sooners don't let the other Mountaineer weapons run wild they will have a great chance to dominate this game. West Virginia, on the other hand, needs to come out on fire just like they did against Georgia in the 2005 Sugar Bowl. An early explosion might be enough to get Oklahoma doubting themselves. Colorado was able to beat the Sooners by playing smart and keeping the game close into the final quarter. West Virginia won't be able to do that, they'll have to win using the same blueprint Texas Tech used back in November. That of get up early and hang on for dear life. West Virginia can put up points in bunches, but they aren't built to catch up quick with the passing game. Pat White and company are at their best when they can bust the home run with the running game. Look for WVU to get scores early and this one to be close going into the fourth with Oklahoma and Bradford being efficient enough to win this one by less than a touchdown.

Line: Oklahoma -7.0, Total 63.0

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Allstate Sugar Bowl, January 1

Hawaii
vs
Georgia
8:30 p.m. New Orleans, La. FOX


Our final New Year's Day Bowl is another "show-me" game. Last year Boise State shocked the world by knocking off Oklahoma in OT. This year the WAC champion again returns to the BCS, this time in Hawaii. Sure the Warriors played the easiest schedule in all of D1, but they are the lone undefeated team in the nation. They haven't seen a team with the size and speed of Georgia, but at the same time Georgia hasn't seen a passing offense anything like what Colt Brennan and June Jones will throw at the Bulldogs Tuesday night in the Superdome.

The WAC hasn't done anything to get any respect so far this bowl season. Nevada got shutout in their game against New Mexico and Boise State lost in Hawaii to East Carolina. Fresno State did get a win against Georgia Tech, but the Yellow Jackets were a mediocre ACC team playing without a head coach. CFN had a great line to put this match up into perspective
Hawaii only beat Nevada by two, needed everything in the bag to get by Louisiana Tech in overtime, and got a tremendous comeback to get by San Jose State in overtime on a sloppy field. Even at home the Warriors struggled to get by Washington and Fresno State, and got wins over teams like Northern Colorado, Charleston Southern, Idaho and Utah State. Georgia beat Florida by 12.
Many considered Georgia the hottest team in the nation at the end of the season, winning their final six games including beating Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech (all bowl teams). Mark Richt did all he could to try and get his Bulldogs mentioned in the national title game debate, but fell on deaf ears once LSU won the SEC. Relegated to the Sugar Bowl against the little guy isn't a role that UGA is new to. Just two years ago Georgia was playing in the Sugar Bowl, this time in Atlanta because of Hurricane Katrina, against an upstart West Virginia team. The Mountaineers were big underdogs in that BCS game and came out running getting out to a huge lead on the Bulldogs before having to hang on for dear life the final three quarters. Richt is too good of a coach to let his team overlook an opponent like that again, especially after hearing about Boise State's win last year in the Fiesta Bowl for the past month.

Hawaii has no running game, so the offense will entirely depend on the right arm of senior QB Colt Brennan. Twice a Heisman finalst, Brennan actually had much better stats last year against a tougher schedule. This season he had to battle nagging injuries that cost him lots of playing time. While his numbers were down, he still had 38 TDs and only 14 INTs. The entire hopes of the islands rest on Brennan's arm. The two men Brennan will be looking for most are Davone Bess and Ryan Grice-Mullen. Both of these guys have NFL talent and will certainly test the young UGA corners.

Georgia has a much more balanced offense. The Bulldogs will run right at Hawaii with RBs Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown. The two combined for nearly 2,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. If the UGA running backs can get to the second level routinely, it will be a very long night for the Warriors. If UGA can slow down the Hawai'i passing game, especially on third downs, they will have an excellent shot at controlling the game and pulling away. Brennan isn't going to make mistakes, but if the Bulldogs can get pressure they can get some errant passes. If Hawaii can't win the time of possession battle, they're cooked.

Line: Georgia -7.5, Total 68.5

Rose Bowl presented by Citi, January 1

USC
vs
Illinois
4:30 p.m. Pasadena, Calif. ABC


Illinois, time to step-up. Sure, the Illini did go into the Horseshoe and beat Ohio State, but now it is time to see if they can do it again. USC has speed on defense that Illinois hasn't seen before. USC has seen a better version of the spread attack when Dennis Dixon and Oregon beat the Trojans 21-14 earlier in the season. Now it is time for Illinois to show why they deserve to be in the Rose Bowl over UGA, or why they are in the BCS instead of the team that beat them in Missouri. Arizona State laying an egg earlier in the bowl season eliminates them from contention.

USC was pegged by everyone as the preseason number 1 and easily the front runner for New Orleans and the National Title Game. A slew of injuries coupled with perhaps the greatest upset in the history of college football cost USC the game against Stanford and probably any chance at the national title. They got by Arizona before crushing Notre Dame and apparently getting back on track. The aforementioned loss to Oregon ended the outside national title hopes. USC did win their final four games to win their 6th straight Pac10 title and get back to the BCS.

USC did have some good wins this year, but nothing worth getting too excited about. They won the games against weaker opponents, lost to the best team in the Pac 10 (Oregon before Dixon went down), and lost the biggest shocker of all time. Pete Carroll is fabulous in bowl games (4-1) but he doesn't have the superstars on this team he is used to. There is no Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Dwayne Jarrett, etc. Don't feel too bad for Carroll, the cupboard isn't bare. This is still the same USC team that has dominated opponents for years. Unfortunately that might be the best thing going for Illinois. USC has been here before. Getting to the Rose Bowl is a huge accomplishment for any team not named USC. Players go to USC to play for national championships, and this will be the second year that players thought national title going into the season and ended in the Rose Bowl prepping for next year.

Illinois on the other hand, has only won 10 games against D1 teams in the past 5 years coming into this season. Compare that to the 59 USC won, and you can see how USC is old hat at this while it is very new and very exciting to the Illini. If Illinois can get over the "happy to be here" jinx and come out firing, they do have a chance against USC.

The USC defense finished the year 2nd overall in defense. If the Trojans play this game like it is the national title, this one could get ugly fast. The front seven for the Trojans is easily in the top 3 in the nation, if not the very best. Senior DT Sedrick Ellis is a force, even if he didn't win the award of Glenn Dorsey. He will make it very hard for Illinois to do much running in the middle. Behind him is the best group of linebackers this side of Penn State/Ohio State. Cushing, Maualuga, and Rivers are all next level talents biding time in southern California before making the mega bucks maybe as early as next season. If this defense plays up to its potential this one could be bad.

Luckily for the Illini, USC has only played a handful of quarters like that all season. If Illinois can come out and move the ball on the ground with RB Rashard Mendenhall it will really open up some lanes for Juice Williams. Williams won't trick anyone into thinking he's a pocket passer, but if he can get even some kind of rythm going through the air, the spread rushing attack can take off against the faster USC defense. USC had trouble with the spread of Washington and Oregon, and while Illinois is better than Washington, Juice Williams is no Dennis Dixon. This game is huge for Illinois as far as getting to the show and getting ready for a huge 2008, but they just aren't ready for the speed of USC.

Line: USC -13.5, Total 49.5

Capital One Bowl, January 1

Michigan
vs
Florida
1 p.m. Orlando, Fla. ABC


If you told people at the beginning of the season that Michigan and Florida would be playing each other in the bowl season, many would have thought this was the national title game. And who could blame them? Florida was coming off of a national title season and was returning one of the most exciting players in the nation in Sophomore quarterback Tim Tebow. Michigan also returned their biggest offensive stars, and many thought the Wolverines would be able to just simply reload on defense and be right in the BCS mix once again. That wasn't the case, and we are treated to two heavyweights squaring off in a New Year's Day bowl game.

Jake Long, Chad Henne, and Mike Hart all came back for their senior seasons to go out winners. This trio of wolverines have been some of the best to ever wear the maize and blue, but had no championships, an 0-3 record against Ohio State, and an 0-3 record in bowl games. The opening day loss to Appalachain State cost them any chance at a national title, but other goals were still within hand. Going into the last game of the season, Michigan controlled their destiny as far as the Big 10 title and the BCS were concerned. Like so many years, a victory over hated Ohio State would give Michigan the Big 10 title. Instead, the trio continued their losing streak to the Buckeyes, losing their 4th straight to Tressel and Co. Now with head coach Lloyd Carr retiring, he has one final game to lead the Wolverines to a bowl victory. If the pressure of all of this wasn't enough for Michigan faithful, they get last year's national champs and this year's Heisman trophy winner in the Capitol One Bowl.

Florida entered the season with a second basketball trophy sitting on the mantle, upping the ante the football team called the year before with their own national title. Expectations were high, even with Tim Tebow becoming a first time starter, no real running back to speak of, and a defense that is very green. All Tebow did was go out and set the SEC record for rushing touchdowns in a season while winning the Heisman trophy. While Tebow is a stud, he's the only threat to run the ball, but he does have Percy Harvin who is a game changer. Unfortunately for Florida, their secondary is very beatable, especially to a prostyle passing game that Michigan will attack with.

Henne and Hart aren't going to be 100% for this game, but they will definitely go out and try and get their sole bowl victory of their career. They also want to try and impress the NFL scouts that are sure to be in attendance. The real game within the game will be future All Pro tackle Jake Long versus the best pass rusher on the Gators team in DE Derrick Harvey. Long is sure to be a top 5 pick, but he wants to dominate Harvey and show a team he's worth that top3 draft pick in April.

Tebow will be trying to break the Heisman curse that's gotten pretty much everyone this decade not named Matt Leinart. A Michigan front seven that is succeptible to a power rushing game (see Beanie Wells) should have Tebow licking his chops. If Percy Harvin and Kestahn Moore get their yards as well as Tebow, Michigan won't have a chance. Michigan will try to pound Hart and the running game, as all three of Florida's losses came when they gave up over 100 yards on the ground (technically only 99 to Auburn). If Florida stops the run, and spreads out the Michigan defense, they run away with this one.

Line: Florida -10.5, Total 60.5