Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Capital One Bowl, January 1

Michigan
vs
Florida
1 p.m. Orlando, Fla. ABC


If you told people at the beginning of the season that Michigan and Florida would be playing each other in the bowl season, many would have thought this was the national title game. And who could blame them? Florida was coming off of a national title season and was returning one of the most exciting players in the nation in Sophomore quarterback Tim Tebow. Michigan also returned their biggest offensive stars, and many thought the Wolverines would be able to just simply reload on defense and be right in the BCS mix once again. That wasn't the case, and we are treated to two heavyweights squaring off in a New Year's Day bowl game.

Jake Long, Chad Henne, and Mike Hart all came back for their senior seasons to go out winners. This trio of wolverines have been some of the best to ever wear the maize and blue, but had no championships, an 0-3 record against Ohio State, and an 0-3 record in bowl games. The opening day loss to Appalachain State cost them any chance at a national title, but other goals were still within hand. Going into the last game of the season, Michigan controlled their destiny as far as the Big 10 title and the BCS were concerned. Like so many years, a victory over hated Ohio State would give Michigan the Big 10 title. Instead, the trio continued their losing streak to the Buckeyes, losing their 4th straight to Tressel and Co. Now with head coach Lloyd Carr retiring, he has one final game to lead the Wolverines to a bowl victory. If the pressure of all of this wasn't enough for Michigan faithful, they get last year's national champs and this year's Heisman trophy winner in the Capitol One Bowl.

Florida entered the season with a second basketball trophy sitting on the mantle, upping the ante the football team called the year before with their own national title. Expectations were high, even with Tim Tebow becoming a first time starter, no real running back to speak of, and a defense that is very green. All Tebow did was go out and set the SEC record for rushing touchdowns in a season while winning the Heisman trophy. While Tebow is a stud, he's the only threat to run the ball, but he does have Percy Harvin who is a game changer. Unfortunately for Florida, their secondary is very beatable, especially to a prostyle passing game that Michigan will attack with.

Henne and Hart aren't going to be 100% for this game, but they will definitely go out and try and get their sole bowl victory of their career. They also want to try and impress the NFL scouts that are sure to be in attendance. The real game within the game will be future All Pro tackle Jake Long versus the best pass rusher on the Gators team in DE Derrick Harvey. Long is sure to be a top 5 pick, but he wants to dominate Harvey and show a team he's worth that top3 draft pick in April.

Tebow will be trying to break the Heisman curse that's gotten pretty much everyone this decade not named Matt Leinart. A Michigan front seven that is succeptible to a power rushing game (see Beanie Wells) should have Tebow licking his chops. If Percy Harvin and Kestahn Moore get their yards as well as Tebow, Michigan won't have a chance. Michigan will try to pound Hart and the running game, as all three of Florida's losses came when they gave up over 100 yards on the ground (technically only 99 to Auburn). If Florida stops the run, and spreads out the Michigan defense, they run away with this one.

Line: Florida -10.5, Total 60.5

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